Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Ebola Virus (EBOV): Predicting the Future of Ebola in West Africa.

Abstract

ARTICLE

Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak is an emergency of international concern and there has been very little work done to predict the spread of the virus in West Africa .The 2014 EBOV outbreak is the largest in the history of mankind. Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. In response to the continuing report of new cases of deaths (49.9% of 1914 reported cases between 1st- 31st August 2014) and the effects of control interventions are yet to be determined. Real-time analysis of EBOV could provide helpful information for public health policy in West Africa .In this study we describe 2014 EBOV epidemic using SIR and SEIR Models, fitting the models to the most recent data about reported cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia provided estimates of the basic reproductive numbers Ro of EBOV in absence and presence of control intervention. We offer the most recent example of how tragedy can befall a country. The dynamics of these models are determined by the per-capita death rate of the infected individual and the per-capita effective contact rate of an individual contracting the disease. We computed the basic reproductive number RO and the effective reproduction number Re to determine the infectiousness and the dynamics of EBOV. Finally the results of these outbreaks will equip epidemiologist modelling Ebola diseases in future with predictions to enable them minimize potential deaths.